General Aoun's Great Sense of Humor

General Aoun has recently given the following advice to Israel: war and aggression don't work.

But he forgot to give that same advice to his ally Hezbollah. And he forgot to use himself that piece of advice during his endless wars in 1989 and 1990.

Note, especially, that wars have benefited Israel over the past 60 years: it acquired more and more land, resources and power. It is now a technological and military superpower. On the other hand, wars have never benefited the Arabs, in particular they did not benefit Aoun himself (the warmonger).

So I am not sure what Israel can make of this piece of advice other than replying to Aoun: "thank you for your great advice. But WE are a superpower today, and YOU were until recently hiding in your exile. Since we do not wish to end up exiled like you were, we urge you to keep your great wisdom to yourself. However, your sense of humor is very much appreciated."

Another Divine Victory

Hamas' bombs did not stop falling on Israel during this tragic war.

I suppose that, according to Hezbollah's dictionary, this is another Divine Victory.
And Hamas outperformed the Hezb in that they are much less trained and equipped (Super Divine Victory).

It doesn't seem hard to beat Israel lately.
As long as you can keep firing katyoushas, you qualify for the Divinity thing.
Allah seems to be beating God.

Of course, never mind the hundreds and thousands of deaths, and the homes, schools and hospitals lost, and the area that's become pretty much economically non-viable. Get that "Divine" title and you'll look cool.

But in addition to throwing Divine Katyoushas, I wish Allah could teach his followers how to do some Divine Politics.

Way of Life

What is Israel doing today?
Scientists and engineers are brainstorming in fancy research centers and labs to design the next tank that cannot be penetrated by a Kornet missile.

What is Hezbollah doing today?
Meeting around a fancy backgammon table to play, drink coffee, and make incessant phone calls to Syria and Iran asking them to call and pray Russia to provide them with the next generation of missiles that can penetrate the latest Israeli innovation.

Oh well, to each his or her way of life.

PS: Notice that Islamic warriors are praying Christian Russia to supply them with weapons. Nature too has its own funny way...

Army Commander

The Lebanese opposition would like to have a say in the choice of the next Lebanese Army commander. They call it "fairness".

But of course, the Lebanese governing party should not have any say in the choice of the next Hezbollah Army commander. "Fairness" again...

Spanish Inquisition

Hezbollah is suggesting to jail Samir Geagea because some Shiite demonstrators clashed with the Lebanese army!

Wasn't it during the Spanish Inquisition when Earthquakes and Volcanoes were blamed on witches and Jews...?

But that was the year 1500!
We told Hezbollah to roll the clock backward by an hour by they rolled it back by a few hundred years!

Tribunals

Nasrallah and Berri want an immediate and decisive Tribunal for the shooting of Shiite demonstrators last Sunday. But they want a very long and prolonged Tribunal for the assassination of Hariri (and they left the government to slow this process down).

Then they give you lessons in fairness and equal participation...

A Letter to General Aoun

Dear General Aoun,

As you should know, the presidential elections in Lebanon are approaching. And you are one of the most distinguished characters applying for the position. Your application will be certainly treated with the utmost respect that it deserves. We wish you best of luck.

However, as you should know, Lebanon is going through dire times. And since you have always cared for Lebanon more than you cared for yourself, sacrificing a lifetime for the benefit of the country, we assume that you are always willing to listen to what some of the poor people of Lebanon have to say.

Here’s what we have to say.

As you should know, Hassan Nasrallah is the main leader of the Shiites. Nevertheless, Hassan Nasrallah is not the president of the parliament, the highest position attainable by someone from his sect. This position is currently occupied by Oustaz Nabih Berri.

As you should know, Saad Hariri is the main leader of the Sunnites. Nonetheless, Saad Hariri is not the president of the cabinet. It is Fouad Siniora that president.

Initially, we were under the impression that you were under the impression that Hariri is the president of the cabinet, and Nasrallah is the president of the parliament. Hence your obsession with the presidency of Lebanon. But given the fact that you curse Siniora and his government at breakfast, lunch, and dinner, therefore we came to the conclusion that you are not under any false impression, and that you are clearly aware who manages the cabinet and who manages the parliament.

So given that none of the major leaders are in the key positions, we wish to ask you the following questions:

Is it fair to have the leader of the Christians be himself the president of Lebanon?

Or should we have in this position another Christian, with a great personality but a little more neutral than the leader of the Christians?

Someone who is at equal distance between Shiites and Sunnites?

Someone who does not curse Siniora and Hariri morning, noon and evening? Someone who knows that these two dudes are not so insignificant to the Sunnite community, and hence they should be respected? Someone who does not seem eager to start a war with the Sunnis following any minor argument. We have seen in the past stubborn leaders enthusiastic to start wars left and right.

Someone who is strong and yet flexible. Someone who listens... to you, to Geagea and to all Lebanese gurus before taking a decision. Someone who you can guide with your eternal wisdom.

Don’t you think it is a little unfair that the Christian leader should be the president of Lebanon while the Druze leader has no such privilege? You speak of neglected Christian community... what about the Druze?

Unless you do not consider yourself to be the leader of the Christians, we urge you to reflect a bit on the above ideas before sending your resume for the Job. You have always believed in the “great people of great Lebanon” (sha3ba Loubnan al 3azim). Therefore we believe that you will easily find (at least) one Christian who you think is qualified for the task (there are one million of these great people, damn it!!).

Dear general Aoun, we wish you best of luck in your career but we also urge you to correct course. Instead of bickering over this little seat of the presidency, we ask you to become the great general of the neutral Lebanon. A Lebanon neither with modernity nor with antiquity. A Lebanon as it has always been and as it will always be. A link between West and East. A lighthouse in the sea of culture and passion.

The Curse of the 10 to 1 Ratio

After 60 years of violence with significant loss and little gain, I think it has become clear that violence is not serving the Palestinian people. The PLO who used to be at the forefront of the conflict with Israel, before Hamas was even born, has understood that violence is only costing the Palestinian people death and poverty. Hamas is slowly but surely coming to the same conclusion.

Hezbollah and the people of South Lebanon have also paid a very high price for the misadventure with Israel. For a punishment, it was beyond harsh and Hezbollah has no option but to stay quiet.

At the core of the Israeli strategy is a "10 to 1 Ratio."

That is, for every violent act against Israel, the latter responds 10 times more violently. If you follow the statistics of people killed in confrontations, you will typically observe this ratio. For example, around 150 Israelis killed in July 2006 versus 1500 Lebanese.

The same sort of ratio holds for Palestinians vs. Israelis killed in wars and Intifadas.

So Israel made it exceedingly costly for the Arabs to try to engage in wars or terrorism. The end result is that the Arabs are quite tired, burnt out. At least those who live in the vicinity of Israel.

The way forward? Find alternatives to violence because violence is simply not working. The Palestinian territories keep shrinking!

Time is capable of miracles. Give peace to Israel and let time give us back what is our right. In a few short decades, if we are not too impatient, the Israeli model based on a Jewish State will start to shatter. You will see deserted Synagogues like today’s deserted Churches in the West. The population will age and will need young workers. Immigration will fill up the void.

Hopefully, by then, Churches, Synagogues and Mosques will all become vestige of the past, no more than beautiful museums. Nations will turn secular. And what’s at the heart of the problem in the Middle East will simply dissipate like a cloud to make room for the sunshine.

But before we can dream of that bright future, we have to try to lighten a bit the dark alleys we currently live in. And despite the lesson that Hassan Nasrallah has learned in July 2006, the tragedy of that summer can be reiterated. How? By amassing more and more missiles, the chances of triggering another deadly war can only increase. I do trust Hassan Nasrallah. He will try his best to avoid another war. He sincerely loves his people and does not want them to go through another round of death.

However, a foreign power is capable of pushing aside Nasrallah (by assassination if necessary) and replacing him with someone willing to fight wars.

During the cold war between the US and Russia, any mistake meant the end of both nations, as well as the entire planet. And the more they built weapons the graver the danger. But there is an important difference in the case of Israel vs. Hezbollah. Israel has an extreme superiority in terms of weaponry. It can wipe South Lebanon out if a few houses in Tel Aviv are hit. It can use Weapons of Mass Destruction with the excuse of self defense.

The greatest losers? The people of South Lebanon.
For every 1000 Israelis killed there will be 10,000 Lebanese killed.
The curse of the 10 to 1 Ratio.

If Hassan Nasrallah wants to spare his people the risk of more misery and death, he should act today: give up the armed section of Hezbollah. Let it join the Lebanese army. Then the risk of war is substantially reduced. Israel is tempted to attack a militia that sits at the border. But it won’t attack a country.

A Charming Personality Visits Paris

Click on image to enlarge smile.

Thank you Ahmadinejad

Ahmadinejad has threatened Israel with destruction should it intervene in Lebanon this summer again.

The Lebanese people should be thankful to the Iranian leader who is so thoughtful.

Last summer, Ahmadinejad offered the same support to the Syrian people in the event Israel attacked Syria. Back then, while Lebanon was being bombed to near annihilation, the very considerate Ahmadinejad threatened Israel with destruction if it attacked Syria. So the Syrian people should also be thankful to this generous man.

Some might ask "but why didn't he threaten Israel when Lebanon was actually being bombed last summer?"

To such ungrateful people I say "Ahmadinejad does not make empty promises."

When he promises something he delivers. And so he only promises when he knows he will not have to deliver...

Because imagine the moment comes when Ahmadinejad is obliged to deliver on his promise! What a mess that would be. Israel could be hit by a couple missiles. In return, Syria and Iran could have several large cities wiped off the map, the nuclear sites of Iran something of the past, and the leaders of Syria and Iran either toppled or hiding in dungeons.

So Ahmadinejad is also a wise man. He wouldn't want something bad to happen to Iran and his people. This is why he has to strike a balance between the support he offers to Arab nations and the consequences of such a support.

In summary, we should be reasonable and only expect from Ahmadinejad non-empty empty promises. And we should rejoice because we now know that Israel was not planning any invasion this summer since Ahamadinejad has just offered us the full backing of his mighty power.

If Fath al-Islam Were Al-Qaeda...

... then shouldn't we see terrorist bombs in Shiite areas in Lebanon?

But we don't see that. All terrorist bombs are taking place in Christian areas. Isn't that odd? In Iraq, the main targets of Al-Qaeda are the foreign armies as well as the Shiites. And if Fath al-Islam were really linked to Al-Qaeda the terror bombs would not be limited to Christian areas.

One explanation is the following: Fath al-Islam is actually a Syrian sponsored terrorist organization. Obviously, the secret service of Hezbollah knows that. Hence, a clear directive from Syria to Fath al-Islam is "never target Shiite areas". Otherwise, it will provoke a major issue with Hezbollah.

So Syria has to play carefully: targeting Christian areas is fair game.

Quite simple!

The Big Fraud

Michel Aoun does not want a compromise Lebanese President.
But does he want a compromise Prime Minister?
Are the Christians allowed to have their favorite President but the Sunnis can't have their favorite Prime Minister?

Aoun thinks it is OK for the people to elect a top Christian leader. But the top Sunni leader cannot be elected by the people!

Assuming Aoun is elected president, who will he choose for prime minister? Will he accept Hariri? Can the government function with Aoun and Hariri fighting over every detail? Won’t they shoot each other in something like a remake of Virginia Tech’s tragedy?

Weren't Saniora and Berri compromise figures, technocrats so to speak, less divisive than Hariri and Nasrallah? So why should the Christians have their strongest but also most divisive leader, while Sunnis and Shiites have weaker but more moderate figures at the top?

Aoun can't seem (or does not want) to understand the difference between France and Lebanon. We are not quite yet a fully functioning democratic nation. And we, like Iraq, still need a lot of careful treatment. This is simply to prevent wars.

It seems to me that Michel Aoun is living a fantasy: he is riding a white horse and his soldiers are calling him "Napoleon our master"...

But there are two important points he is missing: Napoleon was extremely intelligent, and he won most of his battles. What battles did Aoun win so far?

Secularism

Michel Aoun suggested that secularism is the solution to Lebanon's trouble. Using the word "secularism" for propaganda is quite ugly.

Aoun knows very well that "secularism" in Lebanon is not a simple thing. In the same way that "democracy" in Iraq is not a simple thing, as we have seen. You can not parachute a concept from the West into the East.

Actually, Lebanon is secular to some extent. We have to distinguish between two distinct facets of secularism:

1) Separation of Religion and State.
2) Affirmative action.

The first point is already quite established in Lebanon. The religious order does not usually impose laws (unlike in Iran, for example). Reasonably non-religious parliament and government manage the country. Certain aspects are handled specifically by each religion as long as other religions are relatively unaffected. No one is enforcing wearing the cross or the veil. So the issue in Lebanon is not about separation of religion and state. Iran has such an issue.

The second point, affirmative action, is a system of quotas to protect minorities, or more precisely in Lebanon's case, to give some minimum guarantees to various faiths.

So when we discuss secularism in Lebanon, we are actually referring to the system of quotas. Obviously, the need for any system of quotas reflects deep rooted problems in society. But quotas continue to be used by nations around the globe as a starting point for resolving the deep rooted problems. In the USA, affirmative action is used to help women and African-Americans obtain more access to universities. France is considering a similar system to help immigrants who did not get a fair chance while growing up.

In Lebanon, affirmative action subdivides government and administration positions between various religious groups. Each sect has access to a somewhat fair share of positions in the administration. Without affirmative action it is possible that certain sects take over a much larger number of positions than they deserve. Merit is easily replaced by religious or group affiliation. Hence, from a scientific point of view, affirmative action attempts to reduce group biases that naturally occur in society by reserving for each group a number of positions proportional to the size of the group. And the generally valid assumption is that each group will produce a proportionately number of worthy people to hold the positions. Affirmative action encourages diversity that is otherwise diminished by the rule of the strongest.

Affirmative action, among other things, allows the Christians to retain a certain Western educational model, while the Muslims can follow an Eastern model. No sect imposes its preferred model onto another sect. Slowly, and with the advent of the computer/internet age, all sects are converging to the most progressive educational model, anyway. The education aspect is in the process of being resolved without dispute.

But abandoning affirmative action altogether and promptly is dangerous. Religious and ethnic fervor is still running very strong in Lebanon. With the state of things today, it is unlikely a Sunni votes for a Shiite.

Without some amount of affirmative action, larger religions and ethnic groups will suffocate smaller ones. Affirmative action is one temporary solution. But it should be complemented with measures to gradually diffuse religious and ethnic passions. Once religion stops occupying a sacred place in society, once people start worrying more about education, work, health, etc., and less about churches and mosques, only then we can entirely abolish the affirmative action facet of secularism, like in Western nations.

And more importantly, before we can speak of full secularism, true political parties have to emerge and that obey one golden and one silver rules:

1) Genuinely democratic parties that do not revolve around one strong leader. Sheep mentality is a recipe for disaster. Diversity of thought is extremely important.

2) Parties with universal ideologies (not based on particular faiths with no scientific foundation), and with followers from a broad spectrum of religions.

One can counter with the example of Turkey: why is it that Turkey is at the same time a nation of the East and fully secular? The answer is simple: separation of religion and state occurred in Turkey just like in Lebanon many decades ago (it happened via dictatorship in Turkey). Affirmative action, on the other hand, is less needed in Turkey because most people are Sunnis anyway, and they crushed certain minorities. Actually, some amount of affirmative action could have helped diffuse the tension with the Kurds.

Entirely removing affirmative action from the Lebanese system today will result in some religions overwhelming other religions, and then either to civil war or to massive emigration of the losers. The same applies to Iraq: if no political and administrative positions are pre-allocated to the Sunnis, there will not be peace.

Dictatorship with closed borders is an alternative. Perhaps this is Aoun's dream.

"We will sacrifice ourselves for you, Nasrallah"

I don't hear anyone in Israel shouting "we will sacrifice ourselves for you, Olmert."
Or Sharon, or Golda Meir.

I don't hear anyone in the USA shouting "we will sacrifice ourselves for you, Bush."
Or Kennedy or Washington.

No French citizens sacrificing themselves for Sarkozy, Chirac or De Gaulle.
No Germans sacrificing themselves for Merkel (maybe 60 years ago for Hitler, but we are in 2007, for God's sake!)

Anyone in Venezuela making such generous offerings to Chavez? Unlikely.

So what is this phenomenon in Arabia, especially in Lebanon, where people offer their soul or blood to some leader?

Most of them are not honest and will chicken out and run away at the first sign of trouble. But bizarrely, some of them do take things too literally. Typically they overreact during a political showdown with fellow citizens who offered their souls and bodies to opponent leaders. Things can get nasty, and sometimes they don't waste the chance to fulfill their promise to the darling leader.

In my humble opinion, this sort of chants is not a sign of what the world sees as a modern civilization. No one should be sacrificing their lives for no one else, especially not for crooked leaders. And we all know that ALL politicians are crooked. Note: beware if they are simultaneously political and spiritual leaders. This category tends to be doubly crooked.

QUESTIONS:
Will Nasrallah sacrifice himself for you? Where was he hiding in summer of 2006?
Who did Aoun sacrifice in 1990? Himself or yourself?

MORAL OF THE STORY:
My dear Lebanese people, stop chanting stupid slogans! Get a life.

Gauche Caviar

According to an article published in the French editorial Le Monde Diplomatique,

http://mondediplo.com/2007/04/02lebanon,

the UN's international tribunal to prosecute the killers of Rafik Hariri is illegal.

But the article is a bit of a reminder of the French left that hates anything American. There is good reason to hate many things American but some of these French have made it their darling obsession. And since the international tribunal is endorsed by the Americans and the French right, therefore there must be something cooked up.

I find it hard to believe that the UN's abundant lawyers and experts, many of whom aren't American or French, missed the point that the editors of this article are trying to make.

I find it even harder to believe that the murder of the prominent political figure Rafik Hariri, that happened while the Syrian army occupied Lebanon, should not be prosecuted by the UN. Can the Lebanese government effectively prosecute Syrian president Hafez Assad if it turns out he commanded the murder?

Yet one more thing hard to believe: the murder of Hariri has triggered a series of events that may unleash a civil war in Lebanon, thereby endangering the lives of millions of people. Such a civil war can spread to other areas in the Middle East. Isn't that a sufficient threat to humanity, justifying the involvement of the UN?

The events that followed the assassination were predictable to some extent and the UN acted quickly. For once, the UN is not leaving the state of affair deteriorate to a point of no return before it takes action.

About 20 more political figures were murdered in Lebanon since then (and many more before then). Many terrorist acts and threats against civilians, while the Lebanese people and government are watching helplessly. When should the UN get involved?

Syria occupied Lebanon for decades and nearly annexed the country. The Lebanese people widely believe that Syria is behind the murder of a myriad of Lebanese politicians and journalists. No Lebanese tribunal has ever managed to prosecute Syrian leaders. Without a UN tribunal, Lebanon will continue to be the hostage of its neighbor's mood.

The French left should stop eating caviar for a minute, forget their obsession with America, and take a new objective look at the situation in the Middle East. David, Jesus and Muhammad existed before America.

What would Canada do?

Imagine Canada's prime minister is murdered (God forbid).
Imagine there is a nearly slam dunk proof that the US government is behind the murder.
Imagine a terrorist campaign goes on and kills about 20 political figures in Canada, as well as many civilians.
Imagine that terrorist campaign is highly likely sponsored by the US.

What would Canada do?
What would a nation with a minimum self-respect and pride do?
What would normal people do?

Looking at it from far away, from a detached and objective position, I think you will quickly come to the same conclusion that I reached.

The Canadian people and government will:

1) Invade the USA if they can.

2) If they cannot, they will severe all ties with the US until the current government is toppled and the guilty punished, including the US president.

3) Hang anyone in Canada who says "thank you USA."

4) Hang anyone in Canada who questions for 2 seconds any point in an international tribunal, which is drafted by UN experts.

5) Hang anyone in Canada who, while the country is going through grave danger, terrorism, risk of civil war, finds it funny to verbally attack the government on nonsense, bullshit and ridiculous issues. You see, it's not a joke if Canada is in danger of a major blow up while idiot politicians find the time and energy to constantly accuse the government of petty crimes.

6) Hang anyone who resigns from his or her responsibilities in the government, for pointless reasons and obviously driven by external pressure from the US.

7) Dismantle any party named "Party of unification with great USA."

This is how normal people living in a normal nation would react.
For an example of how abnormal people living in a farm would react, read the news in …

Let them eat Uranium!

"If they have no bread, then let them eat cake!"

These words were attributed to Marie Antoinette a bit before the French revolution sent her to the guillotine. But it is unlikely she said them.

However, Ahmadinejad is undoubtedly saying out loud to the Iranian people "Let them eat Uranium!"

The religious clique governing Iran seriously thinks that it is more important for the country to engage in nuclear research, even if Iran has to stop any other kind of research for the next 10 years!

Forget Computer Science, Electrical Engineering, Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Chemistry, Medicine, Psychology, Economics, Social Sciences, Literature, Art, etc. Forget any field that improves technology and generates wealth.

Just focus on Nuclear. If the people are hungry they can have half a kilo of Uranium or Polonium.

In the meantime, the Iranians are queuing up in thousands at the door of foreign embassies to leave the country. Reason: poverty, no jobs, no future. The religious clique is oblivious to their plight.

Striking Similarity

USA has the largest debt in history
Lebanon has the largest debt in history

US government signed Patriot Act
Lebanese government signed International Tribunal

US government took the country to a disaster war
Lebanese… opposition took the country to a disaster war

US opposition contemplates the idea of impeaching Bush
Lebanese opposition has already impeached Siniora

US opposition is working within the congress
Lebanese opposition has blocked the parliament

US opposition has won the majority in congress
Lebanese opposition… believes it will win majority in parliament

US opposition waited for elections to win majority
Lebanese opposition can't wait!

One Free Sabbatical Year To All Leaders

Let us propose one sabbatical year to all leaders in Lebanon.
They can go on vacation wherever they want and "we will happily pay them the vacation".
It will be far cheaper on our pocket than a civil war.

Hawaii, Tahiti, Madagascar, etc are all fine destinations that our leaders can check out and enjoy before they die (and before they kill us). They can get a 5 star hotel or better yet, they can try (for once) a nice camping site. It will get them to meet average people and learn more about the proletariat.

If they wish, and given their legendary wisdom, our leaders can send postcards or letters of advice to the party or group they are affiliated with. But they cannot make public speeches for 1 full year. Before leaving on vacation, they are welcome to impose… sorry, I meant they are welcome to choose a replacement leader, for 1 full year.

Every time they appear on TV or radio, our leaders make fool of themselves. So our advice for them to go on vacation is for their own good. Preserve a bit of what's left of that image!

Our beloved and valiant leaders think and talk like high school students. We can suggest that while on vacation, and between a hike and a snorkel, they catch up a little on their readings of Moliere or Shakespeare (or Orwell).

In one of his latest Napoleonic speeches, Michel Aoun mentioned "his rights" (in Arabic he says houkoukna in a clownish way) that he wants no matter what. I am not sure what rights he's talking about. But we too have rights! And we want our rights: all leaders go on vacation and leave us in peace (literally).

If you think about it, their sabbatical year would also be a well deserved vacation for us! In essence, we would be paying ourselves a nice vacation. Can you imagine a Lebanon without the current collection of leaders? I can… and I can see it shining again, I can see a true spring…

No More Tears... No More Food

Religion and Marx

The problem with the current demonstrations in Lebanon is that they are a stark reminder of Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution.

I tend to like revolutions but only when they are a step forward, not two steps backward. The terrible mistake in Lebanon is that people, knowingly or unknowingly, are resorting to religion in order to rescue the economy. A remake of Iran 1979.

The rich and vibrant center of Beirut is stirring resentment and revolt among the less fortunate population, just a few kilometers away. But religion is not the answer. Hassan Nasrallah represents a religious current. He is quite far from a Marxist or a Socialist or a Leftist. By rallying behind Hassan Nasrallah, the young generation is looking for a way out of poverty through religion. Instead, this young generation should be looking for a decent and modern economic model. Forget Jesus Christ and Prophet Muhammad. Consult Karl Marx and Adam Smith.

If an economic model is not functioning properly, replacing it by any random model is not the solution. It can only exacerbate the problem. If we don’t replace it by the appropriate model we create more damage.

How many Christians, Sunnites or Shiites in Lebanon are lined up at the door of the Iranian embassy? How many are lined up at the door of Western embassies? The answer is obvious: the Iranian model is a failure and does not attract immigrants (although the Western model is far from perfect). So the Iranian revolution that was trying to solve a social class problem, created many other issues that are yet to be resolved three decades later.

Blaming the misery of Lebanon on the vibrant center of Beirut is too naïve. The problem is far more complex. It is essentially due to the devastating 17 year civil/foreign war, followed by the oppressing 15 years of Syrian occupation and the vicious Israeli bombing of Lebanese infrastructure. Not to mention the instability arising from the presence of militias such as Hezbollah and various Palestinian groups. All of the above render the situation highly volatile. The result is a brain drain, a flight of capital and a repulsion of foreign investment, etc.

Remember that the Lebanese currency held on strongly during the first 10 years of the civil/foreign war. It was only until the mid eighties that it collapsed. Delayed response or inertia. The same is happening in Lebanon’s economy today: a delayed response to past wars.

After 6 years of World War II, Western Europe was on the verge of collapse. The American Marshall plan came to the rescue in order to prevent these nations from falling into the hands of communism. It still took decades for Europe to recover despite the economic help.

Can we expect Lebanon, after 30 years of severe troubles, to do any better?

This is not to say that the ruling regime is not engaging in corruption. There is no doubt that corruption is widespread. But “corruption” is not a Lebanese feature. The entire world, developed and not so developed, is acutely suffering from corruption. Especially after a war, a nation is exceedingly difficult to manage: the new Iraq is a disaster in terms of corruption. Every reconstruction deal is tainted with corruption, many involving foreign companies.

The superpower America is having its own dose of corruption. France, Germany and Sweden aren’t safe from this epidemic. Corruption is a trait of human nature. Money and power can and will corrupt any person, including the supposedly honest Michel Aoun. What slows down corruption is a good system of balances and checks, with a powerful and independent judiciary institution. Not the sort of institutions that you can find in a country just coming out of war.

In any case, it is very important how we deal with corruption: is it by bringing a backward religious system like the Iranian revolution did? Or is it by strengthening the institutions, in particular the judiciary system? Step by step, slowly but surely, we can evolve the system and clean it up as much as possible. It will never be perfect (not in the current world).

Are the demonstrations in Lebanon going in the right direction? I doubt it. They are driven by the religious and fascist order. I say fascist because the movement behind Michel Aoun is a one man show. Moreover, when a nation is coming out of the ashes, it needs to breathe a bit of fresh air, and it needs a little period of stability. It is not the time to demolish the weak structure, just one year after foreign occupation ended!

The wealth of the center of Beirut will typically spill onto the neighboring quarters. It is up to the government and the people (public and private) to try and spread the wealth as equitably as possible. It will take time and energy. It will take hard work, not speeches. There is no simple solution. The rest of the world has the exact same problems.

But let us not step backward. Say NO to the religious order. Let religion stay inside religious temples and in personal prayers. The society and social classes need a sound economic model, not the preaching of the clerics.

In my humble opinion, the demonstrations should be halted, at least temporarily. Give some margin to the government to try and tackle the economic issues. Let the nation breathe for a few years. If the situation keeps worsening, simply elect new leaders. There is no urgency to change leaders: even the corrupt president can continue till the end of his term. But there is an urgency to maintain stability.

Hint: don’t elect the leaders that destroyed the nation many times in the past. Don’t elect fascist one man show leaders. Look for fresh new faces, for humble leaders with an open ear to the people and to other political currents.

Let The People Vote

Rather than calling for demonstrations, and since Lebanon is split about half half on most issues, why not ask the people to vote like the EU citizens are voting on their new constitution?

Each citizen will vote by either Yes or No (or abstain) to each question below:

1) Elect a new president?
2) Change the government?
3) Elect a new parliament?
4) Disarm Hezbollah?
5) Re-arm the Sunnis and Christians?
6) Accept the UN proposal for the international tribunal as is without any changes?

If the opposition refuses this voting and proceeds with demonstrations, then the current majority is entitled for its own version of demonstrations: disarm Hezbollah.

Double Edge Sword

Hassan Nasrallah is urging defiance and more demonstrations. He is calling for the government to resign. And he can surely mobilize half the population behind his cause.

But wouldn't it be funny if the other camp called for demonstrations asking Hezbollah to disarm? And they can surely mobilize the remaining half of the population!

The people will chant "we'll give you the government if you give us your 20,000 missiles."

The arguments used by Nasrallah to push for the resignation of this government are too easy to counter with arguments for disarming Hezbollah.

If, according to Nasrallah and Aoun, the government has to comply with the desire of the people, then Hezbollah too will have to comply with the desire of the people.

It's the right time to counter-attack for two reasons: 1) the opposition started this aggressive tone, 2) in order to embarrass Michel Aoun's supporters. Can they march against the government but not march to disarm the militia?

However, it is important not to please the Syrian president Bashar Assad. Demonstrations should take place at different times and in different locations to prevent clashes.

Divine Victory

What a divine victory for Israel if the Lebanese people start fighting each others!
The true divine victory!

While Hassan Nasrallah is hiding in some bunker, while he is losing any credibility he recently acquired, while he is doing the dirty jobs of Syria and Iran, Olmert is calmly sipping his soup with a viciously beautiful grin on his face. It is the soup of DIVINE VICTORY that Olmert can finally taste to.

Indeed, divine victories are not won with F16 or Kornet missiles. Divine victories are for those who have brains.

Divine victories are for those who control superpowers, not those controlled by superpowers. Olmert imposes his will on the USA. Nasrallah receives his orders from Syria and Iran.

Hitler is not dead!

Say NO to Strong Leaders

What is Lebanon suffering from today?
The Cult of Personality.
Worshipping ONE man for certain things he has said or done.

Europe did face this problem 50 years ago with Hitler, Mussolini, and others. Democracies can be manipulated by such demagogue leaders. Indeed, Hitler was democratically elected and many Germans worshipped him. They stopped asking questions!

The true solution that Europe found is not to follow one man but a whole group. A group brings diversity of leaders, gurus and opinions like the board of a company. Diversity prevents the stubbornness, the selfishness and insanity of one man to lead the pack of sheep into the abyss. The Lebanese people should say NO to any leader who appears too strong. We need weak leaders but strong groups. At least for a start, until a healthier democracy is established.

Wikipedia has a nice introduction at Cult of personality.

A quote by Karl Marx:

"From my antipathy to any cult of the individual, I never made public during the existence of the [1st] International the numerous addresses from various countries which recognized my merits and which annoyed me.... Engels and I first joined the secret society of Communists on the condition that everything making for superstitious worship of authority would be deleted from its statute."

NO to Gods, NO to kings and NO to demagogues.

God and the Devil

God and the Devil are playing poker. Usually the Devil wins at this game but this time God is confident he’s got the upper hand. Indeed, the Devil seems deep in thought trying to find a way out while God is relaxed, playing with a colorful string in his hands. But suddenly and out of nowhere, the magic Devil brings out a Royal Flush and wins the bet! The cards literally changed colors. God is unpleased. For once he was about to win.

Then, in one of his brilliant moments, God comes up with an interesting idea. “You always beat me at this poker game,” he tells the Devil. “I am going to bet you something different.” Showing the colorful string in his hands, he continues “do you see this little vibrating string? I can specify a small set of rules that the string must obey, and I bet you, double or nothing, that the string will multiply and create a fascinating universe. A universe made of fire and stone; large round planets that orbit gigantic flaming suns.”

The Devil gives him a skeptical look. But God goes on, “and one of these planets will be quite special. It will be my blue jewel. There… the string will transform into water. And little by little, small magnificent and colorful species will be born. The species will evolve into larger and larger varieties. Green forests, flowery gardens, playful animals. The animals will proliferate and roam the planet.”

“That sounds like science fiction,” replied the Devil. “I take your bet.”

At that moment, God writes down a few rules, ties the string to his magic wand and makes one little bang at the poker table. Instantly, a universe is born. And to the amazement of both God and the Devil, the universe is beautiful beyond their imagination.

“Very impressive,” uttered the Devil. “Your animals on this jewel planet are fairly smart. I especially fancy the apes. We are even. But are you ready for a more audacious bet?”

God astonished: “more audacious?”
With a devilish look, the Devil retorts: “yes dear. I am willing to bet you that, with a tiny effort, I can demolish your blue jewel planet.”
God: “How will you do that?”
The Devil: “do you see this cute little ape? I am going to call her Lucy. I will add one minor rule to your initial set of rules, and Lucy will evolve over time into an enthralling creature. A creature that will be far more intelligent than all animals we have seen so far.”
God: “hum…”
The Devil: “the creature will procreate and conquer the planet. It will have enough intelligence to start asking questions about you and me!”
God: “you are a devil, aren’t you?”

With his magic wand, the Devil…

Two Negations May Make a Nation

“Everything is for the best in the best of worlds,” said Voltaire satirically… but perhaps rightly.

In 1943, the modern version of Lebanon was born from a pact in which the Christians said NO to Western interference and the Muslims said NO to Arabic interference. At the time, journalist Michel Chiha prudently expressed his disbelief with his famous “two negations do not make a nation.”

It takes more than words to build a sound nation. It may take WARS, BLOOD AND A COMMON DESTINY.

But isn’t that precisely what has happened to Lebanon in the recent past? Wars, blood and a common destiny could be the cement needed to erect a solid structure like the one Switzerland is made of.

After so many years of common affliction, the Lebanese people, somewhere deep inside, feel closer to each other than ever before. Their fate appears now intrinsically linked, in life and in death, in happiness and in misery. It all started with two superficial negations. Add to that a bloody mixture of wars, shake well, and you may get some firm foundations.

Why? Probably because it’s human nature: in modern times, after experimenting with wars, people are discovering that in peace and solidarity they all gain. As Europe’s population grew, even the French, English and Germans have found a way to live peacefully side by side. Who could have imagined it?

Some of the signs that Lebanon’s diverse groups are coming closer together are quite visible, despite tensions provoked by irresponsible and egocentric leaders. The Christians and Sunnis were quick to help Shiite refugees during the latest tragedy.

The Christians can clearly see that the Shiites have produced, in spite of a religious connotation, a relatively modern party and military that kept in check the mighty Tsahal. Even Iran itself is flirting with modernity. And the Muslims can clearly see that the Christians’ middle class has evaporated, and their political privileges gone.

Nasrallah’s and Aoun’s followers, despite a sheep-like tendency not to question the pack leader, do have an encouraging dynamic and enthusiastic attitude. They want to rebuild nearly as fast as the Israelis destroyed. If their leaders were to recover some sanity, Lebanon would be in great shape.

Despite the skirmishes on the surface, Lebanon may have today the prerequisites for a stable nation. The people appear to be ready to accept each other. But the leaders aren’t rising above their irrelevant self interest. They could gain far more if they were to behave like great leaders who look for reward in their immortality rather than in quick, small and pointless advantages.

Global Free Trade... But No Global Justice?!

Iraq is living a horrible tragedy. The main cause: Bush and Blair.

Bush and Blair should be prosecuted by their own people. Accountability is VERY important.

The US cannot hold Bush accountable for domestic issues only and completely unaccountable on the world stage. This is a disgrace to true democracy.

Justice must be GLOBAL too, not just free trade!
Spreading global capitalism without global justice is simply hypocritical. It unveils the true intent of imperialist America.

If the American people fail to punish their own leaders, terrorists do have a case!
Someone will be punished. Better be the president than the entire people.

Iraq

The US and UK armies should leave Iraq. Their presence is more destabilizing than stabilizing.

They should be replaced with a mixed force of Shiite and Sunnite.
Iran, Egypt and Pakistan can be contributors to this force, plus the Iraqi official army.

By including Iran, we show this nation that the international community is willing to trust it. By giving Iran responsibility we are encouraging it to behave more responsibly. It can be used as a leverage to ensure a nuclear free Middle East. The US must at the same time pressure Israel to dismantle its nuclear arsenal (this will be a tough one, but guarantees can be offered to Israel or economic sanctions imposed).

Iran must not try to annex certain parts of Iraq. This will need to be carefully monitored by the UN.

Iran will have the task to disarm the Shiite militias. Egypt and other Sunnite forces will have to curb Sunnite militias.

Democracy may be a source of civil war for the time being in Iraq. Each sect is "democratically" asking for more power! Hence, in the interim, a UN sponsored government can be put in place and whose task is to ensure that all sects are equitably served by a new constitution (in large part inspired from the current constitution). All sects should have their rights protected. The constitution will be democratically amended in a few decades, when democracy is ripe.

The UN sponsored government will essentially be designated by current Iraqi political entities as well as Iran, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, etc.

Tough luck Iraq!

Ignore Hezbollah, Fight Corruption

It is impossible to have a meaningful debate with Nasrallah. He wants to keep his weapons at any cost. So let it be since we can’t disarm him.

We are helpless against Israel and we are helpless against Hezbollah. So we’ll ignore both Israel and Hezbollah, and move on. It is futile to waste our energy cursing, ranting and whining. All we can try is to contain Israel and Hezbollah as much as possible to avoid tragedies such as the latest one. Both are irresponsible and criminal entities. But what can we do?

The best strategy for the time being is to fight corruption. It should be the number one priority. We have to start somewhere.

As time goes by, as Lebanon and other Arab nations improve their standard of living, slowly people will get disenchanted with armed militias who can provoke wars at any time. Who wants wars when they have a house, a job, a school and a clean hospital? Let the curse of the middle class fall upon all the sects of Lebanon! A curse and a cure.

Now Nasrallah wants to change the government. How arrogant. But a good strategy is to ignore him. Someone should tell him that he can sleep next to his RPG in the cave but please shut up.

Then comes Aoun. As if the circus can afford one more clown (the job market for clowns is oversaturated). He wants a national unity government but at the same time he thinks the national dialogue conference is not working. How can a government work if the dialogue is not? Go figure. Anyway, let’s please him with a bone: a brand new leather seat at the government’s table, and we’ll see what sort of dialogue he has in mind. I can see him already ironing his best suit in preparation for the next presidential campaign. A monkey in the president’s seat… but it’s not a premiere.

As for the international tribunal, we may have to drop this one. Syria assassinated Hariri. May his soul rest in peace. But we got Lebanon in return. We can’t ask for much more, I guess, while the country is heading to nowhere.

Let us forgive the killers of Hariri as we forgave and continue to forgive all those who participated in the previous wars and in the latest war. We forgive Israel, we forgive our neighbors and we forgive ourselves. If we don’t, the alternative is to die.

Eventually, brammertz will render his report public and it will be known who killed Hariri. We don’t need to punish them. The future will punish them. And if Bammertz retains his report secret, we can use it as a leverage to pressure Syria. More important for us than punishing Assad is to draw an official border and to stop Syrian interference in Lebanon. That report is our sword.

Modest Request From a Christian Militia

Dear Prime Minister of Lebanon, Mr. Fouad Siniora, aka Mr. Fouad Sanyourah,

This letter is to ask for your permission to buy arms and missiles for some Christian militia in Lebanon. We hope you understand the position of this militia and will give it your green light.

You see, there are other armed militias in Lebanon.
So it seems forming militias and carrying weapons in Lebanon is something legal.
Moreover, the Christians, a minority in Lebanon and the Middle East today, do feel threatened just like the Palestinians and other factions. The request to militarize is quite justified.

As long as there are other people carrying arms in Lebanon, we cannot accept any rejection of this modest request.

Please note that the Christian militia has plans to buy the most sophisticated missiles you can find on the market. No compromise on quality. The entire world will look in admiration at the display of weapons and power. Something to be proud of as a Lebanese, from any region and any sect.

Yours truly,

Happy Arab

Lebanese Prisoners in Syria

Dear Hassan Nasrallah,

Would you please be kind enough to kidnap Syrian soldiers in order to exchange them with Lebanese prisoners in Syrian jails?

Best regards,

Happy Arab

PS: these prisoners are mainly Christians but I suppose you are defending the cause of all Lebanese people, Shiite, Sunnite and Christians alike.

Sustainable Democracy Center

Sustainable Democracy Center
Article in L'Orient Le Jour

Hezbollah's Wrong Strategy

Why didn't Hezbollah open the access of their bunkers to the poor Shiite stuck in the middle of the fire?

How can Hezbollah plan and prepare for war by digging bunkers without thinking of the potential poor Shiite casualties?

What sort of perverted strategy is that?

Are the innocent Lebanese civilians considered collateral damage by Hezbollah in his valiant fight against Israel?

How can Hezbollah provoke Israel and shell it with Katyushas when they know that there will be a stronger retaliation and that while they will be hiding in bunkers, their cousins will be outside dying of bombs and hunger?

Israel did prepare for war by making sure that all Israeli civilians can be vacated from the North, and that Hezbollah is not capable of inflicting significant damage.

But Hezbollah didn't seem to care for their civilians. They didn't seem to ponder the possibility that if Hezbollah fighters can hide when warplanes come to bomb, the civilians have nowhere to hide or go. If Hezbollah has enough food and water for some weeks, the poor civilians won't have enough food and water.

The difference between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government is that the latter does not engage in wars without preparing and thinking about all its civilians. Just like the Israeli government.

Hassan Nasrallah considers the poor Lebanese of the South as acceptable collateral damage of his valiant wars and his greater cause. A cause that I fail to understand. What is he trying to achieve?

Israel technically defeated Hezbollah by hitting the weak spot: the Lebanese civilians that Hezbollah forgot to include in their planning and strategy. Not only Hezbollah forgot to plan for the safety of these civilians, but also forgot to plan for a potential sea and air blockade that can humiliate Lebanon, Hezbollah and the innocent people. A blockade that deprives Lebanon from essential needs and that Hezbollah is helpless against.

Wrong strategy!

A Militia in Cuba

Imagine a militia in Cuba, independent from Fidel Castro, starts occupying some region in the country and becomes heavily armed.

Chavez, for example, provides the militia with money and arms. The militia becomes a state within the state such that Cuba's government cannot intervene. The government is unhappy with the situation but unable to control it.

This militia's ideology is that the imperialist US has impoverished and harmed Cuba, and today is time for payback. So the militia starts bombing Miami sometimes, kidnapping American people other times, etc. And the militia keeps acquiring more and more powerful missiles. 1000 km range, 2000 km range, etc.

What would the response of the US be?

Even if we side with the militia and agree that they have a strong point (Cuba has been harmed by the US for decades), the response from the US can be expected to be very harsh. They will invade Cuba.

Indeed, in 1962 something similar occurred and nearly ignited WWIII.

And this is what Olmert did in Lebanon.

So our main problem in Lebanon, at the moment, is that the government has been pushed aside and a militia took over. Should Israel tolerate people armed with long range missiles, who obey no official authority, and sitting by the Israeli border?

If I were Israel I wouldn't tolerate it!

Moreover, these armed people will become even more armed in 2010: more powerful and longer range missiles that can reach Tel Aviv. And these armed people are disobeying all attempts by the Lebanese government to peacefully disarm and join the political life.

So what options is Israel left with?

I honestly believe that Israel is a terrorist state. But I can understand the Israeli reaction. You cannot pack long range missiles at their border and have no official authority behind the command of these missiles! There will be a response, a strong one.

Imagine further that one day Iran succeeds in developing an atom bomb. And then imagine Iran smuggling such a bomb to Hezbollah... The only option Israel has is to destroy Hezbollah or find a way to disarm it.

Hezbollah's armed existence is wrong in the modern world where human beings have reached a sufficiently advanced level to create nations governed by official entities. And these entities communicate with each other at the level of a state. Guerillas are understandable when the state is under siege or lost. But in Lebanon there exists a state and it is democratically elected. Why should Hezbollah carry arms?

The problems between Israel and Lebanon should be handled by the democratically elected Lebanese government. Israel's government is doing its job. Let the Lebanese government do its job. I don't see any Zionist militias in the North of Israel trying to deal with the issues with Lebanon.

Let us behave like the modern world if we don't want to look like a society of monkeys.

Ahmadinejad's Blogsite

What a mistake for Ahmadinejad to start his own blog! http://www.ahmadinejad.ir.
Before reading his blog, I was under the impression that he is an intelligent man. How disappointed I am to realize he is as fanatical and ignorant as Bush. We are living in dangerous times with these two men on top!

Ahmadinejad seems to put the entire blame of the misery of Iran exclusively on the West and especially the US. But here are some observations that he seemed to have missed:

South Korea and Japan are examples that the West does not necessarily abuse nations. The two nations are now economically stronger and richer than most Western nations. They also have some of the most advanced scientific research in the world.

West Germany was also occupied by the US. And Germany today is quite independent from the US and is one of the super economies of the world.

Iran was never occupied by the US.
How come Japan, South Korea and Germany who were occupied by the US managed to become super economies and super advanced nations while Iran, who wasn't occupied by the US remained behind?

Blaming the US is way too easy. I agree that the US and the West share a big part of the blame. But a bigger part of the blame lies in the hands of the Iranian people. It is childish to run away from your responsibilities, Ahmadinejad.

You could say that because of oil, the US treated Iran and the Arab world differently from Japan and Germany.
Or that the US may have tried to exert control over Japan and Germany but it failed because the two nations were already quite powerful and advanced. However, it succeeded with the weaker and less advanced Iran.

It's true to some extent.
But South Korea was a poor nation. Yet it managed to succeed brilliantly and the US doesn't control a thing in South Korea today.

And here's why the US never succeeded in controlling Germany and Japan: these two countries put the wars behind them, discarded nuclear energy (although many Germans were the fathers of the nuclear age), did not have any significant armies, and focused on CIVIL TECHNOLOGIES, SOCIAL PROGRAMS, SCIENCE and ART. Japan and Germany today focus on new technologies such as biotech, nanotech, robotics, hybrid car engines, etc. This is where the money is. Nuclear research is old stuff with little money to be made from. Universities in the US do not invest much in nuclear research compared to newer technologies.

What is Iran doing today? Rather than accepting the offer of the EU for more trade, for lifting all kinds of sanctions, and so on, Iran stands alone in defiance. Iran wants to focus on nuclear research and forgets the much more lucrative biotech and nanotech.

Had Germany and Japan in 1970 taken a similar stance to Iran today, defying the world, insisting on nuclear research and ignoring the more important technologies, Germany and Japan would have been wiped out, back to dark age.

Remember Iraq in 1990? Didn't you think at the time that Saddam is stupid? Rather than focusing on civil programs, Saddam went invading other nations. Whether it was his right or not, the world does not function by right and wrong. The world is a jungle where the smartest, strongest and fittest survive. All Saddam had to do was take it easy, and slowly and silently build Iraq's economical power (which is far more important than military power. Civil programs are far more productive than military programs).

So why is Iran, contrary to Germany, Japan and South Korea, going on a route that can lead it to bankruptcy at best? It is simply because Iran is not a democracy. Therefore, rather than bringing on top bright people who know what is the best for their nation, Iran brings on top some backward thinking religious fanatics who are clueless and who will end up doing more harm than good to Iran.

The main difference between South Korea and Iran is that the former is a democracy while Iran is a theocracy. This is the main reason why Iran is behind, Ahmadinejad, not because of the West. So South Korea, without any oil resources becomes an economic superpower while Iran is wasting time trying to get nuclear energy or weapons (whatever).

Who cares about nuclear weapons anyway?! They can't be used! If Iran blows one nuclear bomb, it will be wiped off the map, so what's the point? As a deterrent (or as an incitement)? Against what? Is anyone trying to invade Iran (unless Iran insists on nuclear programs)? What are nuclear weapons serving Pakistan and India? They just make them look like bad guys. Sweden does not have any such weapons, by the way. What is more prestigious today, Pakistan or Sweden?

In fact, there is a higher chance that a nuclear weapon or a nuclear site in Iran blows on its own (like Chernobyl) and kills Iranian people. And a much lower chance that an Iranian nuclear bomb ever kills an Israeli person. So is this nuclear program directed against Iranians? Masochistic Ahmadinejad!

In any case, Ahmadinejad is making a huge confusion. The West is not one person or one entity. It is a multitude of people, of countries, of ideas that are often opposed to each other: sometimes religious, sometimes atheist, sometimes capitalistic, sometimes communist, sometimes for war, sometimes for peace, sometimes for slavery, sometimes for human rights, etc.

The West too has struggled with all the kind of problems that the family of Ahmadinejad struggled with. Poverty, urbanization, suburbs, religions, wars, etc. By a historical accident, the West happened to have some decades of advance over the other civilizations. So the West experimented will all kinds of ideas and systems. Slowly it converged toward the model that we all know today. This model is far from perfect, most Westerners agree to that. It is a model that works to some extent, but also a model that is destroying nature. Westerners are realizing it and slowly tweaking the model to save the Earth, if possible. All civilizations have destroyed nature to the extent they were able to. The first people to reach Australia wiped all mammals out. We can't blame the Westerners for all the tragedies of this planet. They are one part of it.

My point being that rather than standing up like a cock and defying the West, we have to learn from their experience and then improve upon it. There is no point in repeating everything they went through. In 2006 we can study their past centuries and see what they did right and wrong and choose a decent path for Iran and the Arab world.

The most urgent change we need in Iran and in Arabia is to have democracies that on average elect smart people as leaders, and quickly correct bad choices by removing lousy leaders. This way we prevent the ignorant fanatics from leading us into the abyss.

See how America will push Bush aside and bring a better president next time. Will something like that ever happen in Iran???

Ahmadinejad, forget the nuclear weapons that can only bring death and poverty to your people (and to other people). Focus on biotech and nanotech. Believe me. You can overpass South Korea one day if you follow this advice. Otherwise, you will continue to be the slave of your religious beliefs. And stop blaming the West for your troubles. The answer to your problems lies in your hands.

Underpants

On October 13, 1990, general Aoun did not have the time to pack his stuff as he fled Baabda wearing nothing but underpants.

He was prime minister at the time and, 16 years later, he continues to believe that all prime ministers terminate their mandate in underpants, with no time to pack.

What a monkey!

I used to think of Aoun as another Hitler.
But now I think of Aoun as another Bozo the clown (Hitler wasn't an idiot!).

Before returning from Stockholm, Siniora should ask "General Aoun, should I stay in Stockholm or it is OK if I return to pack my stuff?"

Stingy Olmert!

Many thanks to Olmert who, rather than helping pay for Lebanon's reconstruction, is continuing to play the tough guy by imposing a blockade on Lebanon. This is to show his public that he has won, to destroy Hezbollah's (not so deserved) prestige, and to obtain the unconditional release of his two soldiers.

I can understand that from a strategic point of view. But Olmert must pay a few billion dollars for the reconstruction of Lebanon. Otherwise, we can continue to see Israel as a pure force of destruction, which it has been for the past 50 years.

After all, the US is paying for the reconstruction of Iraq. So Olmert, call your Jew friends around the world and send us a big check. I think it is fair that you give us this check in return for the two soldiers.

The Lebanese Army

Some people ask the question "why didn't the Lebanese army try to stop the Israeli invasion?" They left Hezbollah to fight the war alone. But there are many reasons why the Lebanese army could not do much.

1) Hezbollah was occupying the South and never let the army take control. The army could not suddenly show up and start fighting. The routes were anyway destroyed by the invader within a few hours, and the army didn't even have a chance to move logistics to the South (at the eleventh hour, without any prior notice from Nasrallah). Moreover, when you have a militia already fighting, you can't have a third army suddenly showing up and trying to organize the fight. It will become a circus. How do you ensure that the militia and the Lebanese army don't shoot at each other by mistake? Who decides what the tactics are and who controls what? Just imagine you are a soldier stuck between two enemies shooting at each other.

2) Even if the Lebanese army was already established in the South, it is suicidal to fight a superpower like Israel. What did the Iraqi government do against the US invasion? What did Granada do against the US invasion? The more you fight, the more you kill your innocent people. Better not to fight and find another solution. Quite often cowardice is intelligence. What does pride serve you if you lost your family, house and job? When a tiger in the jungle feels threatened, he hides. Many mammal species in Australia were wiped out ten thousand years ago because they didn't know they should hide from invading humans. Who talks about these mammals today except some archeologists and biologists? Survival of the fittest implicitly means that if you're dumb you're history.

3) You may ask "then why was Hezbollah capable of standing against Israel?"
Hezbollah is a guerilla and is quite different from an official army. They are armed civilians hiding in caves. Their logistics are kept to a minimum. They cannot fight wars other than sitting in place and defending, or hit and run type of attack. Their leadership went in hiding and no one knows where Nasrallah is today. Do you think Siniora can afford to run away and hide like Nasrallah (if the army were to get involved)? Who would run the government, the economy, the security, the country?

4) For the same reason that Syria and Iran did not get involved, the Lebanese army did not get involved. Because once you put an official army in the face of Israel, Israel will have an excuse to wipe it out, along with the entire country. They easily won all previous traditional wars. And once things become official, Israel could feel more threatened, or play the victim, and use WMD weapons (chemical, biological, etc).

5) The Lebanese army has limited resources. It could not afford to buy Kornet missiles. The economy of Lebanon is in a disastrous shape, the debt is huge, we have no industries like the US and no oil like Saudi Arabia, and little chance of paying off our debts and coming out of poverty. So the government decided to save the money, invest it in social services rather than buying weapons. Hezbollah, on the other hand, has the luxury of receiving free and sophisticated weapons from an oil rich country, Iran, who likes to play superpower in the region. So Hezbollah is showered with money and weapons, without putting real hardwork to earn them. When things come easy, they go easy.

6) Why should the Lebanese army engage in a war that was, in part, decided by Hezbollah? Hezbollah triggers wars and then asks for help? I think that the Syrian army and the Iranian army should have come for help, not the Lebanese army. They were happily watching this war and quick to brag about how they can resist Israel via a proxy militia.

Ahmadinejad, The Traitor

While Lebanon was being bombarded, Ahmadinejad warned Israel that any aggression on Syria will be considered an aggression on Iran, and Iran will retaliate.

Why didn't Ahmadinejad consider the aggression on Lebanon as part of the same aggression on Iran?

He is a traitor.
He left the poor Shiites of South Lebanon to die while he promised to help the Sunnis of Syria.

I think it is time for Hassan Nasrallah to explain to Assad and Ahmadinejad that he has done his part of the job, that his people have paid a very high price, and that the next war should be directly between Syria and Israel, or between Iran and Israel, how ever they wish, but no more involvement of Lebanon.

I think Ahmadinejad will appreciate this kind of honest comment by Nasrallah.
And Nasrallah can add that he has decided to invest in biotech, nanotech and fine arts, because he found that the return on investment in Kornet missiles is not great.

Return To The South

It is heartbreaking to watch the poor and innocent Lebanese people so eagerly returning to their homes in the South. If any homes are left.

They do not want to stay refugees, not one minute more. They were often warmly welcomed in other areas of the country and in Syria, and yet they choose to return so quickly.

We can't hear it, but they can hear their land calling.
We can't feel it, but they can feel their roads and schools are waiting, the trees and the streams are lonely.

People of the South, isn't it guns and cannons that shattered your fond memories?
Do not allow the logic of war to hit you ever again. "Never again."
For you deserve peace as much as the inhabitants of the Golan Heights and Haifa deserve it. No more, no less.

The Orphan

A family of 5 walking down the street is attacked by an armed gang of 5. The vicious gang is carrying big guns.

Version 1:
The family gives any money they carry to the gang. The gang leaves. The family goes straight to the police and deposit a complaint. With a small chance, the police may recover the money back from the gang.

Version 2:
One of the children in the family is carrying a small pistol. He shoots at the gang. A fight starts. The family runs for hiding. But the father, mother and 2 children are killed. The armed kid is the only one to remain alive, and he's bravely continuing the fight. He even manages to kill one of the gang's members. He declares that a victory and starts jumping out of joy.

That kid is Hassan Nasrallah! He's today an orphan for his entire family has been wiped out. He ain't the brightest kid you can imagine.

The Darwin Award

For a definition of the Darwin Award, you could refer to:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darwin_Awards

Hassan Nasrallah made a non-fatal mistake: kidnap 2 Israeli soldiers.
It wasn't fatal because often a mistake can be corrected.

Indeed, Hassan Nasrallah could have, for example, returned the kidnapped soldiers unconditionally.

Or, once the war ignited, he could have asked his soldiers to strategically withdraw from the South and avoid the clashes with the Israeli army... for many reasons:

- prevent the bloodshed of LEBANESE civilians,
- prevent the destruction of the South of LEBANON and many other parts of the country,
- prevent the LEBANESE Shiites from loosing their homes, cars, jobs, savings, schools, hospitals, etc.,
- prevent the LEBANESE Shiites from fleeing to an unknown future,
- prevent his army from being decimated,
- and remain politically strong, backed by a non-decimated army.

But the "non-fatal" mistake became a "fatal decision" once Hassan Nasrallah stood to fight a volcano, a mighty superpower.

Will he deserve the trophy of the Darwin Award in 2006?

It seems Arafat's army in 1982 ran away from the South. That prevented many massacres and it kept the PLO's army in relatively good shape. Arafat outlasted the 1982 invasion by more than 20 years.

Will Hassan Nasrallah be able to outlast the current invasion by 20 years?
Once you hear a volcano roaring, would you sit underneath?

Note that in the above I stressed the words LEBANON and LEBANESE in capital letters. This is to say that if anyone should care about this country and people it should be Hassan Nasrallah rather than Ehud Olmert. The latter couldn't care less since he has no LEBANESE passport.

Once again I reiterate my opinion that the best way to deal with Israel is to give it peace. Hassan Nasrallah chose the war and he is paying a hefty price. Not just himself, but all of his fellow citizens will pay a very big price.

What is Israel paying? A few scratches on some buildings? They will recover any losses in a few months. Lebanon will reel under the destructions for a decade.

Someone gave the example that Hezbollah today can be compared to the Zionist terrorists in the 1940s. They started weak and small but defeated mighty armies and created a superpower in a few decades. However, I don't think this analogy holds. The Zionist terrorists were backed by the brightest brains on this planet. They invented modern science, modern technology and modern art. What are the backers of Hezbollah inventing?

According to Charles Darwin, the fittest or the smartest will survive.
Rather than building bunkers, Hassan Nasrallah should have built schools.
The weapon of the future is education, not Katyusha.

General Aoun's Political Agenda

General Aoun has quite a diversified political agenda. It takes a different color every day of the week. Only Michel and China are capable of handling such a colorful agenda.

Marxist Monday:

All Lebanese must be equal. We have to increase the tax rates in order to give a decent welfare to the poor, free education and universal healthcare. Public utilities should be nationalized to prevent them from being used for profit.

Capitalist Tuesday:

Lebanon’s standard of living must improve. The economy should expand by 10% each year. We have to decrease tax rates to encourage local and foreign investments. We have to give full support to innovation and small and medium size corporations. We may privatize some of the utilities to discourage monopoly that results in bad public service.

Anarchist Wednesday:

The government is the source of all evil. It is equally abusing all Lebanese people. All departments are corrupt and badly need re-organization. Even the justice department is screwed up. We must reduce all departments to a minimum (excluding the highly strategic position of the presidency).

Dictatorship Thursday:

Corruption and mess are widespread. The country’s situation is spiraling out of control. Lebanon needs a ruler with hands of steel. The army will take over and the secret service will make sure that everyone is following the rules. We need a major clean up until the mentality of the people changes. It may take a couple decades.

Imperialist Friday:

America is pissing us off. Russia too. France and Germany likewise. We are going to build the atom bomb. We will attack Syria first and then move upwards onto Turkey. We will then invade Russia, take over Alaska and finally move straight down onto California and New York. The Lebanese empire will last one or two millenniums.

Resting Saturday:

A break in the villa in Rabieh or the apartment in Paris. Dinner with Chirac in the Elysee.

TV Sunday:

Trash Siniora and Chirac on TV.

Mon Général

Général Aoun, je t’aime je t’aime
C’est la maladie d’amour que tu sèmes
Chez les chrétiens tu es un emblème
Au Liban tu es la crème de la crème

Tu t’es battu avec les syriens en 89
Qui ont fait éclater notre toit tout neuf
Et la femme du voisin maintenant veuf
Qui a aussi perdu sa vache et son bœuf

Mon général, à l’époque tu avais bien vu
Avec ta sagesse sur ton front bien cousue
Que l’Amérique ne nous a pas vendu
A la Syrie pour nous bouffer tout cru

Supposons un instant que la guerre de Tahrir
Avait fini par briser le mur de Barbir
Et les cloches de la victoire de retentir
Est-ce que ton Nasrallah allait applaudir ?

Mais avant de nous quitter pour la France
Ton altesse avait eu la bienveillance
De nous faire hisser dans une transe
En proposant à Geagea une petite danse

Le Hakim prit la direction de la prison
Mon général déguerpit en caleçon
Tel un poisson repêché par hameçon
Mais de cette fable il tire une bonne leçon

Bonne leçon qui quinze ans plus tard
Nous sert un plat chaud garni de lard
Mon général de retour en tenue de canard
Défile à la télé et traite les gens de connards

Ta sagesse abondante telle la farine moulue
Mon général, de nouveau tu l’as bien vu
Que l’Amérique cette fois nous a vendu
A la Syrie qui nous aime comme un Jésus

Ainsi tu fais la cour à notre Assad chéri
Dans ses bras tu danses une valse fleurie
La tête qui tourne à une vitesse inouïe
Attention de ne pas tomber sur le tapis

Vos beau-frère et beau-fils Chaoukat et Bassil
Ces bras droits et pas du tout imbéciles
Qui ne piqueraient du pétrole pas un barmil
Illustrent la fin du féodalisme et du bartil

Car toi tu sais qu’Assad est cent pourcent
Du meurtre de Hariri et Tueni innocent
Les mains de Lahoud sans taches de sang
La note de Mehlis à l’école zéro sur cent

Ton regard n’est pas du tout trompeur
Mon général tu seras le grand vainqueur
Seul Napoléon a ta force et ton cœur
Tu es Charles De Gaulles notre sauveur

Les myriades d’étoiles du firmament
Comme toi elles rêvent depuis un moment
Que prochainement et éternellement
Tu seras notre unique et seul président

Hezbollah should move to Syria

Hassan Nasrallah is another interesting character. He is surely a smart man but his ideas and speeches defy logic. There are no normal nations in the world that have a group of heavily armed people outside the army, and yet he insists on keeping his weapons. Obviously the goal is not to protect Lebanon from Israel since the latter can blow up all of Lebanon with missiles and warplanes while Hezbollah is watching. Indeed, when Israel was blowing up power station after power station, Hezbollah was watching helpless. Helpless since none of the Resistance’s weapons can reach the warplanes! Ouch! Hassan Nasrallah forgot to diversify his arsenal like any modern military!

Another of Hassan Nasrallah’s blunders is that the Resistance’s weapons will never be turned against a Lebanese party. At the same time he launches threats that the arm, leg and soul of whoever tries to take his weapons by force will be broken. Who is the target of these threats? Israel and the US? Well, if he can break the arm of the US that would be something. Almighty Saddam couldn’t! These threats are empty, directed especially at keeping the Lebanese population in fear. Great job Mr. Nasrallah! Keep the Lebanese people fearful of civil war. This is the true goal behind your shameless Resistance. I don’t think any Israeli is having trouble sleeping but many many Lebanese can’t close an eye at night because of your elegant threats.

With all due respect, a few old technology missiles cannot protect Lebanon against an aggression from Israel, Mr. Nasrallah. By the way, this is technology that was invented in the West many decades ago. Using, against your enemy, an obsolete technology that was invented by your enemy is kind of stupid, don’t you think? Don’t you think that your enemy has developed ways to neutralize this old technology?

Here’s a proposal to Mr. Nasrallah.

Since he thinks so highly of Syria, and since he is so eager to defend the Arab cause, and since so many in Lebanon are ungratefully complaining about his army, and since in Syria there is currently no Resistance of the kind that he has, and since the occupied Golan is much larger than the Shebaa farms and in more urgent need for liberation, I suggest that Mr. Nasrallah and his army move to Syria.

This is a win-win move since I suppose the Syrian people will be more grateful, and the thorny issue with at least half of the Lebanese people will be resolved. Once in Syria, Hezbollah will be able to receive all the gratitude of the valiant Syrian people (assuming they are more supportive of the Arab cause than the unappreciative and coward Lebanese). The party will benefit from direct and full support of its beloved Syrian regime. It will have access to much needed weapons without having to deal with obnoxious Lebanese border customs. And it should have an open platform to wage incessant attacks on Israel, especially that the Syrian regime will be eager to let the Resistance begin the liberation of Arab land, starting from the Golan Heights. There is no reason to doubt that Nasrallah will succeed where Nasser and Assad failed.

However, there is one minor problem.

What if many Syrians, just like many Lebanese, are unappreciative cowards who do not like the idea of Mr. Nasrallah’s buddies carrying weapons in the streets of Syria?

To solve this minor problem, I propose a simple opinion poll in Syria:

- If a majority of Syrians will be happy with the idea of Mr. Nasrallah and company settling in Syria, then the case is closed.

- If, on the other hand, a majority of Syrians will be unhappy with the armed group moving to Syria, then Mr. Nasrallah should realize that his militia is unwelcome in many Arab nations and that he has to rethink the reason of its existence. If rejected by half the population of Lebanon and Syria, I think the best solution for Hezbollah is to disarm and join the political life. Or join the Lebanese, or Syrian, official armies.

Long live Lebanon and the Arab nations.

Give peace to Israel

On the Israeli economy and the gap between rich and poor:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4833602.stm

This goes to show that if the Arabs were to give peace to Israel, it will slowly fall into the curse of Western society, the curse of capitalism, the curse of the middle class, the curse of boredom and depression.

While the dynamic Arabic youth will recreate another Chinese success. Rising from zero to overtake the West.

The best way to beat Israel is to give it peace. An odd paradox of nature.

A Solution to Tsunami Aoun

Michel Aoun is a strange character. I have hard time telling if he's honest or full of lies. Probably a pathological liar but the support he is getting from many Christians makes you wonder. It's like believing in Jesus Christ just because so many people around you believe in this icon. Psychology of the masses.

Not only strange but Michel Aoun is also a problematic character. He is behind deep divisions between the Christians. If he were really concerned about the Christians he should move back to France and let the Christians heal their wounds and reunite (and Geagea could do the same to be fair). Assuming for a moment that he is highly capable and intelligent, he should know that Lebanon is full of other highly capable and intelligent people who can take over. Quite frankly we can do without his services and help. He is creating more problems for the Christians and all of Lebanon than he is solving.

Unfortunately, it will be near impossible to convince Michel Aoun to move back to France. He understands nothing to politics - he messed up already many times - and he is being led by smarter politicians. Quite a clown. His agenda is pure nonsense. All he can do is criticize the government day and night when he has no better alternative. Nothing constructive. A purely destructive force. Luckily he is no longer leading an army of tanks and canons. Cause beware when Michel is angry.

But there may be a solution to this tsunami called Aoun. Lately he sounds quite beaten. He obviously realizes that he is loosing at many levels, including some of his popularity. This is good news because it will force him to come down to Earth, calm down and accept to negotiate (not his favorite sport).

The solution must take into account the feelings of his followers as well as Hezbollah so that we start a healing process rather than deepen the wounds.

In my opinion, the right solution at the moment is to replace Emile Lahoud by Michel Aoun. This solves many problems at once and has the potential to start a true healing process in Lebanon. Setting Michel Aoun as the interim president is like curing the disease by the disease itself. A vaccine so to speak: insert a small quantity of the virus in the body in a controlled manner to boost the immune system and prevent a catastrophe.

If Michel Aoun excels at his dream job as the interim president, we will all cheer him up and officially elect him for the next round. But this is quite unlikely: he gives me the impression of an incompetent who can’t control his temper. So if he fails, the Christians current dilemma will automatically be solved! It’s a win-win situation.

If he turns out to be Lebanon’s De Gaulle, that will be fine with most of us. But more likely what will happen is that once confronted with real life problems, he will fail to achieve much, day after day the people will become disenchanted, and his charm will be forever tainted. Put the monkey on stage and watch the fun. The next election he will loose and retire (if he has any dignity) or continue his political career in ranting and cursing. Tsunami Aoun will be defeated.

Moreover, by placing Aoun in the presidency, both Emile Lahoud and Hassan Nasrallah will find themselves in an awkward position. Emile Lahoud will have no allies left and will be forced to quit. Aoun will have to make some decisions on the situation in the South (if he wants to appear at least 1% like De Gaulle) and that will put him at odds with Hassan Nasrallah.

Cure the disease by the disease itself. Let the bullies bully each other so that we can be done once and for all.

Israel won the war. We will win the peace.

This is a speech I would like to hear from the president of an Arabic nation.

Israel won the war. We will win the peace.
Each and every time we fought them we lost. Let us try a different strategy. A winning strategy that does not rely on weapons that we can't have.

In war we can see no end to the dark road. In peace we may see the light not so far away. In war we are doomed. In peace we have a chance.

Let them take whatever they want.
Give them the land. Give them the water.
Give them the living room, the dining room and the bedroom.
We will stay in the kitchen.
We, Arabs, are more hospitable and generous than the Europeans.

But remember: one day we will prevail. We will prevail in peace. We will prevail with our youth and talent.

They planted oranges in the desert. We will change sand into water.
They walked on the moon. We will run to the sun.
They bark and brag about their free speech and democracy. We will silently show them the true free speech and democracy.

China is proving that the most valuable resource is the human resource. We have plenty of it.
They will no more fear our bombs. But one day they will fear the Arabic Union as much they fear the rising China.

Europe: have no fear for you will not become Islamic. We will have enough jobs down here, for us and for your children in need. And we will host your children in our living room, in our dining room and in our bedroom.

To our youth I say: forgive us for we have failed you. But we will close the old book of hatred and defeat, and we will open a new page of love and victory. We will teach you how to plant the seeds of progress. And we will rest our hopes and future on your shoulders.

Do not look back. Life is in front of you with her arms wide open. Let her embrace you.
Let Da Vinci and Einstein be the lighthouse of the harbor where you sail from. But sail far far away, to horizons where the smile and the light of your predecessors vanish at the feet of mountains of glory. And then you will climb to the top.

You will prevail.

Joumblatt Beyk Smashes General Aoun

Walid Joumblatt serves an ace and smashes Michel Aoun.

Joumblatt is just too clever. He decides to use the same type of rhetoric that once made the general a superstar. And with this rhetoric he achieves several goals:

1) Cut the grass under Aoun’s feet. The general is now in the awkward position where he can’t go back to his old rhetoric that used to enchant the Christian population. It would look like imitation. And every move toward the pro-Syrians resonates like a betrayal. His supporters can’t help but ask “where is our Napoleon? Is it Walid Joumblatt?”

2) Cut the grass under Hassan Nasrallah’s feet. Hezbollah’s leader cannot continue with his pro-occupation stance which is too cowardly when compared to the heroic position of his old rival, the Druze leader. In the end, the people will applaud those who braved the dangers. Nasrallah is quickly loosing steam from old conquests and he must correct course shortly.

3) Revive the dreams of the Lebanese people. Those dreams that were shattered by the repressive Syrian occupation. The words of Joumblatt reverberate like delicious echoes in the minds of the liberated people. The Lebanese youth can dream once again! A bright future may be just around the corner.

Let us hope that Syria will find its own Napoleon soon.