Sunday, December 10, 2006
Saturday, December 09, 2006
Religion and Marx
The problem with the current demonstrations in Lebanon is that they are a stark reminder of Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution.
I tend to like revolutions but only when they are a step forward, not two steps backward. The terrible mistake in Lebanon is that people, knowingly or unknowingly, are resorting to religion in order to rescue the economy. A remake of Iran 1979.
The rich and vibrant center of Beirut is stirring resentment and revolt among the less fortunate population, just a few kilometers away. But religion is not the answer. Hassan Nasrallah represents a religious current. He is quite far from a Marxist or a Socialist or a Leftist. By rallying behind Hassan Nasrallah, the young generation is looking for a way out of poverty through religion. Instead, this young generation should be looking for a decent and modern economic model. Forget Jesus Christ and Prophet Muhammad. Consult Karl Marx and Adam Smith.
If an economic model is not functioning properly, replacing it by any random model is not the solution. It can only exacerbate the problem. If we don’t replace it by the appropriate model we create more damage.
How many Christians, Sunnites or Shiites in Lebanon are lined up at the door of the Iranian embassy? How many are lined up at the door of Western embassies? The answer is obvious: the Iranian model is a failure and does not attract immigrants (although the Western model is far from perfect). So the Iranian revolution that was trying to solve a social class problem, created many other issues that are yet to be resolved three decades later.
Blaming the misery of Lebanon on the vibrant center of Beirut is too naïve. The problem is far more complex. It is essentially due to the devastating 17 year civil/foreign war, followed by the oppressing 15 years of Syrian occupation and the vicious Israeli bombing of Lebanese infrastructure. Not to mention the instability arising from the presence of militias such as Hezbollah and various Palestinian groups. All of the above render the situation highly volatile. The result is a brain drain, a flight of capital and a repulsion of foreign investment, etc.
Remember that the Lebanese currency held on strongly during the first 10 years of the civil/foreign war. It was only until the mid eighties that it collapsed. Delayed response or inertia. The same is happening in Lebanon’s economy today: a delayed response to past wars.
After 6 years of World War II, Western Europe was on the verge of collapse. The American Marshall plan came to the rescue in order to prevent these nations from falling into the hands of communism. It still took decades for Europe to recover despite the economic help.
Can we expect Lebanon, after 30 years of severe troubles, to do any better?
This is not to say that the ruling regime is not engaging in corruption. There is no doubt that corruption is widespread. But “corruption” is not a Lebanese feature. The entire world, developed and not so developed, is acutely suffering from corruption. Especially after a war, a nation is exceedingly difficult to manage: the new Iraq is a disaster in terms of corruption. Every reconstruction deal is tainted with corruption, many involving foreign companies.
The superpower America is having its own dose of corruption. France, Germany and Sweden aren’t safe from this epidemic. Corruption is a trait of human nature. Money and power can and will corrupt any person, including the supposedly honest Michel Aoun. What slows down corruption is a good system of balances and checks, with a powerful and independent judiciary institution. Not the sort of institutions that you can find in a country just coming out of war.
In any case, it is very important how we deal with corruption: is it by bringing a backward religious system like the Iranian revolution did? Or is it by strengthening the institutions, in particular the judiciary system? Step by step, slowly but surely, we can evolve the system and clean it up as much as possible. It will never be perfect (not in the current world).
Are the demonstrations in Lebanon going in the right direction? I doubt it. They are driven by the religious and fascist order. I say fascist because the movement behind Michel Aoun is a one man show. Moreover, when a nation is coming out of the ashes, it needs to breathe a bit of fresh air, and it needs a little period of stability. It is not the time to demolish the weak structure, just one year after foreign occupation ended!
The wealth of the center of Beirut will typically spill onto the neighboring quarters. It is up to the government and the people (public and private) to try and spread the wealth as equitably as possible. It will take time and energy. It will take hard work, not speeches. There is no simple solution. The rest of the world has the exact same problems.
But let us not step backward. Say NO to the religious order. Let religion stay inside religious temples and in personal prayers. The society and social classes need a sound economic model, not the preaching of the clerics.
In my humble opinion, the demonstrations should be halted, at least temporarily. Give some margin to the government to try and tackle the economic issues. Let the nation breathe for a few years. If the situation keeps worsening, simply elect new leaders. There is no urgency to change leaders: even the corrupt president can continue till the end of his term. But there is an urgency to maintain stability.
Hint: don’t elect the leaders that destroyed the nation many times in the past. Don’t elect fascist one man show leaders. Look for fresh new faces, for humble leaders with an open ear to the people and to other political currents.
I tend to like revolutions but only when they are a step forward, not two steps backward. The terrible mistake in Lebanon is that people, knowingly or unknowingly, are resorting to religion in order to rescue the economy. A remake of Iran 1979.
The rich and vibrant center of Beirut is stirring resentment and revolt among the less fortunate population, just a few kilometers away. But religion is not the answer. Hassan Nasrallah represents a religious current. He is quite far from a Marxist or a Socialist or a Leftist. By rallying behind Hassan Nasrallah, the young generation is looking for a way out of poverty through religion. Instead, this young generation should be looking for a decent and modern economic model. Forget Jesus Christ and Prophet Muhammad. Consult Karl Marx and Adam Smith.
If an economic model is not functioning properly, replacing it by any random model is not the solution. It can only exacerbate the problem. If we don’t replace it by the appropriate model we create more damage.
How many Christians, Sunnites or Shiites in Lebanon are lined up at the door of the Iranian embassy? How many are lined up at the door of Western embassies? The answer is obvious: the Iranian model is a failure and does not attract immigrants (although the Western model is far from perfect). So the Iranian revolution that was trying to solve a social class problem, created many other issues that are yet to be resolved three decades later.
Blaming the misery of Lebanon on the vibrant center of Beirut is too naïve. The problem is far more complex. It is essentially due to the devastating 17 year civil/foreign war, followed by the oppressing 15 years of Syrian occupation and the vicious Israeli bombing of Lebanese infrastructure. Not to mention the instability arising from the presence of militias such as Hezbollah and various Palestinian groups. All of the above render the situation highly volatile. The result is a brain drain, a flight of capital and a repulsion of foreign investment, etc.
Remember that the Lebanese currency held on strongly during the first 10 years of the civil/foreign war. It was only until the mid eighties that it collapsed. Delayed response or inertia. The same is happening in Lebanon’s economy today: a delayed response to past wars.
After 6 years of World War II, Western Europe was on the verge of collapse. The American Marshall plan came to the rescue in order to prevent these nations from falling into the hands of communism. It still took decades for Europe to recover despite the economic help.
Can we expect Lebanon, after 30 years of severe troubles, to do any better?
This is not to say that the ruling regime is not engaging in corruption. There is no doubt that corruption is widespread. But “corruption” is not a Lebanese feature. The entire world, developed and not so developed, is acutely suffering from corruption. Especially after a war, a nation is exceedingly difficult to manage: the new Iraq is a disaster in terms of corruption. Every reconstruction deal is tainted with corruption, many involving foreign companies.
The superpower America is having its own dose of corruption. France, Germany and Sweden aren’t safe from this epidemic. Corruption is a trait of human nature. Money and power can and will corrupt any person, including the supposedly honest Michel Aoun. What slows down corruption is a good system of balances and checks, with a powerful and independent judiciary institution. Not the sort of institutions that you can find in a country just coming out of war.
In any case, it is very important how we deal with corruption: is it by bringing a backward religious system like the Iranian revolution did? Or is it by strengthening the institutions, in particular the judiciary system? Step by step, slowly but surely, we can evolve the system and clean it up as much as possible. It will never be perfect (not in the current world).
Are the demonstrations in Lebanon going in the right direction? I doubt it. They are driven by the religious and fascist order. I say fascist because the movement behind Michel Aoun is a one man show. Moreover, when a nation is coming out of the ashes, it needs to breathe a bit of fresh air, and it needs a little period of stability. It is not the time to demolish the weak structure, just one year after foreign occupation ended!
The wealth of the center of Beirut will typically spill onto the neighboring quarters. It is up to the government and the people (public and private) to try and spread the wealth as equitably as possible. It will take time and energy. It will take hard work, not speeches. There is no simple solution. The rest of the world has the exact same problems.
But let us not step backward. Say NO to the religious order. Let religion stay inside religious temples and in personal prayers. The society and social classes need a sound economic model, not the preaching of the clerics.
In my humble opinion, the demonstrations should be halted, at least temporarily. Give some margin to the government to try and tackle the economic issues. Let the nation breathe for a few years. If the situation keeps worsening, simply elect new leaders. There is no urgency to change leaders: even the corrupt president can continue till the end of his term. But there is an urgency to maintain stability.
Hint: don’t elect the leaders that destroyed the nation many times in the past. Don’t elect fascist one man show leaders. Look for fresh new faces, for humble leaders with an open ear to the people and to other political currents.
Friday, December 08, 2006
Let The People Vote
Rather than calling for demonstrations, and since Lebanon is split about half half on most issues, why not ask the people to vote like the EU citizens are voting on their new constitution?
Each citizen will vote by either Yes or No (or abstain) to each question below:
1) Elect a new president?
2) Change the government?
3) Elect a new parliament?
4) Disarm Hezbollah?
5) Re-arm the Sunnis and Christians?
6) Accept the UN proposal for the international tribunal as is without any changes?
If the opposition refuses this voting and proceeds with demonstrations, then the current majority is entitled for its own version of demonstrations: disarm Hezbollah.
Each citizen will vote by either Yes or No (or abstain) to each question below:
1) Elect a new president?
2) Change the government?
3) Elect a new parliament?
4) Disarm Hezbollah?
5) Re-arm the Sunnis and Christians?
6) Accept the UN proposal for the international tribunal as is without any changes?
If the opposition refuses this voting and proceeds with demonstrations, then the current majority is entitled for its own version of demonstrations: disarm Hezbollah.
Double Edge Sword
Hassan Nasrallah is urging defiance and more demonstrations. He is calling for the government to resign. And he can surely mobilize half the population behind his cause.
But wouldn't it be funny if the other camp called for demonstrations asking Hezbollah to disarm? And they can surely mobilize the remaining half of the population!
The people will chant "we'll give you the government if you give us your 20,000 missiles."
The arguments used by Nasrallah to push for the resignation of this government are too easy to counter with arguments for disarming Hezbollah.
If, according to Nasrallah and Aoun, the government has to comply with the desire of the people, then Hezbollah too will have to comply with the desire of the people.
It's the right time to counter-attack for two reasons: 1) the opposition started this aggressive tone, 2) in order to embarrass Michel Aoun's supporters. Can they march against the government but not march to disarm the militia?
However, it is important not to please the Syrian president Bashar Assad. Demonstrations should take place at different times and in different locations to prevent clashes.
But wouldn't it be funny if the other camp called for demonstrations asking Hezbollah to disarm? And they can surely mobilize the remaining half of the population!
The people will chant "we'll give you the government if you give us your 20,000 missiles."
The arguments used by Nasrallah to push for the resignation of this government are too easy to counter with arguments for disarming Hezbollah.
If, according to Nasrallah and Aoun, the government has to comply with the desire of the people, then Hezbollah too will have to comply with the desire of the people.
It's the right time to counter-attack for two reasons: 1) the opposition started this aggressive tone, 2) in order to embarrass Michel Aoun's supporters. Can they march against the government but not march to disarm the militia?
However, it is important not to please the Syrian president Bashar Assad. Demonstrations should take place at different times and in different locations to prevent clashes.
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
Divine Victory
What a divine victory for Israel if the Lebanese people start fighting each others!
The true divine victory!
While Hassan Nasrallah is hiding in some bunker, while he is losing any credibility he recently acquired, while he is doing the dirty jobs of Syria and Iran, Olmert is calmly sipping his soup with a viciously beautiful grin on his face. It is the soup of DIVINE VICTORY that Olmert can finally taste to.
Indeed, divine victories are not won with F16 or Kornet missiles. Divine victories are for those who have brains.
Divine victories are for those who control superpowers, not those controlled by superpowers. Olmert imposes his will on the USA. Nasrallah receives his orders from Syria and Iran.
The true divine victory!
While Hassan Nasrallah is hiding in some bunker, while he is losing any credibility he recently acquired, while he is doing the dirty jobs of Syria and Iran, Olmert is calmly sipping his soup with a viciously beautiful grin on his face. It is the soup of DIVINE VICTORY that Olmert can finally taste to.
Indeed, divine victories are not won with F16 or Kornet missiles. Divine victories are for those who have brains.
Divine victories are for those who control superpowers, not those controlled by superpowers. Olmert imposes his will on the USA. Nasrallah receives his orders from Syria and Iran.
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