The Curse of the 10 to 1 Ratio

After 60 years of violence with significant loss and little gain, I think it has become clear that violence is not serving the Palestinian people. The PLO who used to be at the forefront of the conflict with Israel, before Hamas was even born, has understood that violence is only costing the Palestinian people death and poverty. Hamas is slowly but surely coming to the same conclusion.

Hezbollah and the people of South Lebanon have also paid a very high price for the misadventure with Israel. For a punishment, it was beyond harsh and Hezbollah has no option but to stay quiet.

At the core of the Israeli strategy is a "10 to 1 Ratio."

That is, for every violent act against Israel, the latter responds 10 times more violently. If you follow the statistics of people killed in confrontations, you will typically observe this ratio. For example, around 150 Israelis killed in July 2006 versus 1500 Lebanese.

The same sort of ratio holds for Palestinians vs. Israelis killed in wars and Intifadas.

So Israel made it exceedingly costly for the Arabs to try to engage in wars or terrorism. The end result is that the Arabs are quite tired, burnt out. At least those who live in the vicinity of Israel.

The way forward? Find alternatives to violence because violence is simply not working. The Palestinian territories keep shrinking!

Time is capable of miracles. Give peace to Israel and let time give us back what is our right. In a few short decades, if we are not too impatient, the Israeli model based on a Jewish State will start to shatter. You will see deserted Synagogues like today’s deserted Churches in the West. The population will age and will need young workers. Immigration will fill up the void.

Hopefully, by then, Churches, Synagogues and Mosques will all become vestige of the past, no more than beautiful museums. Nations will turn secular. And what’s at the heart of the problem in the Middle East will simply dissipate like a cloud to make room for the sunshine.

But before we can dream of that bright future, we have to try to lighten a bit the dark alleys we currently live in. And despite the lesson that Hassan Nasrallah has learned in July 2006, the tragedy of that summer can be reiterated. How? By amassing more and more missiles, the chances of triggering another deadly war can only increase. I do trust Hassan Nasrallah. He will try his best to avoid another war. He sincerely loves his people and does not want them to go through another round of death.

However, a foreign power is capable of pushing aside Nasrallah (by assassination if necessary) and replacing him with someone willing to fight wars.

During the cold war between the US and Russia, any mistake meant the end of both nations, as well as the entire planet. And the more they built weapons the graver the danger. But there is an important difference in the case of Israel vs. Hezbollah. Israel has an extreme superiority in terms of weaponry. It can wipe South Lebanon out if a few houses in Tel Aviv are hit. It can use Weapons of Mass Destruction with the excuse of self defense.

The greatest losers? The people of South Lebanon.
For every 1000 Israelis killed there will be 10,000 Lebanese killed.
The curse of the 10 to 1 Ratio.

If Hassan Nasrallah wants to spare his people the risk of more misery and death, he should act today: give up the armed section of Hezbollah. Let it join the Lebanese army. Then the risk of war is substantially reduced. Israel is tempted to attack a militia that sits at the border. But it won’t attack a country.